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USL Championship FT Sunday, 04 Oct 2026
New Mexico United
New Mexico United
Home
L W D L W
5th place in USL Championship
-
Full Time
Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park · 🌀️ 18°C
1
New Mexico United Win Probability 55%
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
Away
W L W W D
7th place in USL Championship
Our Prediction β˜†β˜† confidence
Recommended Tip
1 @ 1.71
55% probability Β· 3/5 confidence
Predicted Score
2 – 1
xG (Goals)
2.02 – 1.05
πŸ“ˆ Home Edge 55% 🎯 Proj. 2 – 1
Win Probability
New Mexico United 55%
Draw 19%
Phoenix Rising 25%
πŸ—³οΈ Fan Prediction Poll

Who do you think will win?

Cast your prediction before kick-off

Vote cast:
New Mexico United
Draw
Phoenix Rising
Our AI tips 1 β€” 55% probability
Match Preview & AI Analysis Statistical Insights

New Mexico United meet Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park on 2026-10-04 22:00 UTC.

Host side New Mexico United enter this contest having won 40% of their previous 5 matches, averaging 1.4 points per game with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded.
Phoenix Rising arrive having secured 3 wins and 1 draw across their last 5 fixtures, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game.

Looking at the Head to Head history over the last 5 meetings, New Mexico United hold the advantage with 3 victories compared to 1 for Phoenix Rising and 1 draws.

The statistics and expected goals (xG) point towards an open game, showing a 77% likelihood for more than 2.5 goals to be scored in this fixture.

πŸ’‘ Note: 1 @ 55% β€” model expects 2.43–1.63 (New Mexico United 55% Β· draw 19% Β· Phoenix Rising 25%; over 2.5 77%, BTTS 73%).
🎯 Prediction: New Mexico United to win 2-1 Model Confidence: 55%
AI Prediction Index Powered by BetPredictionTips
5.5
Prediction Index
1
55%
Home
X
19%
Draw
2
25%
Away
46% Recent form 66%
84% Attack 95%
28% Defence 52%
60% Head-to-head 20%
55% Win probability 25%
Predictions by Market
Match Result (1X2)
1
55% 1.71
Double Chance
1X
74% 1.27
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77% 1.22
Both Teams To Score
BTTS
73% 1.29
Over 1.5 Goals
No analysis for this market.
Goals & Trends
77%
Over 2.5
73%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
3.07
Avg Goals
πŸ“Š Trend: Predicted total goals: 3 (xG Home: 2.02, xG Away: 1.05). Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 77%.
Recent Form β€” Last 5
L W D L W
2-1-2
W-D-L
7:6
Goals
1.4
PPG
W L W W D
3-1-1
W-D-L
9:4
Goals
2
PPG
⚑ Form Insight: Phoenix Rising hold the form edge heading into this tie with 2 PPG over their previous 5 games.
Head to Head
04 May 2026 New Mexico United 3 – 0 Phoenix Rising
04 Dec 2025 Phoenix Rising 0 – 0 New Mexico United
04 Jul 2025 New Mexico United 1 – 0 Phoenix Rising
04 Feb 2025 Phoenix Rising 0 – 2 New Mexico United
04 Sep 2024 New Mexico United 3 – 0 Phoenix Rising
🀝 H2H Summary: Looking at the Head to Head history over the last 5 meetings, New Mexico United hold the advantage with 3 victories compared to 1 for Phoenix Rising and 1 draws.
League Standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
5 New Mexico United New Mexico United 24 15 8 1 0 53
7 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 24 8 5 11 0 29

New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction & Detailed Match Preview

In-depth statistical breakdown, expected goals analysis, and mathematical tips for USL Championship.

New Mexico United meet Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park on 2026-10-04 22:00 UTC. This matchup features two sides looking to make an impact in the standings, with key points at stake in this phase of the competition.

Team Form & Performance

Host side New Mexico United enter this contest having won 40% of their previous 5 matches, averaging 1.4 points per game with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. Meanwhile, Phoenix Rising arrive having secured 3 wins and 1 draw across their last 5 fixtures, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game.

Head-to-Head Record (H2H)

Looking at the Head to Head history over the last 5 meetings, New Mexico United hold the advantage with 3 victories compared to 1 for Phoenix Rising and 1 draws. Tactical setups in previous meetings demonstrate that neither manager takes unnecessary risks early in the match.

Goal Expectancy & Betting Trends

The statistics and expected goals (xG) point towards an open game, showing a 77% likelihood for more than 2.5 goals to be scored in this fixture. With an expected goal tally of 3.07 across 90 minutes (xG: 2.02 home, 1.05 away), value punters should note market trends surrounding Over 1.5 (78%) and Over 2.5 (77%).

πŸ† Final Model Verdict: Prediction: New Mexico United to win 2-1 with a recommended bet on 1 at current estimated odds of 1.71.
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